Coastal Carolina

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	246.0
Current RPI:	246
Expected SOS:	200
Current SOS:	200
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-8
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	212
Expected OOC SOS:	64

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	246.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coastal Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	66-60	L	0%
11-17	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	N	69-83	W	100%
11-18	Vermont (60.0)	AE	N	67-80	L	0%
11-19	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	84-89	W	100%
11-29	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	81-87	L	0%
12-2	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	67-69	L	0%
12-6	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	A	81-85	W	100%
12-9	South Carolina (90.0)	SEC	A	80-78	L	0%
12-18	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	H	80-84	L	0%
12-22	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	65-67	L	0%
12-29	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	90-65	W	100%
12-31	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	48-53	L	0%
1-4	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	82-72	L	0%
1-6	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	81-64	L	0%
1-11	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	66-77	L	0%
1-13	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	58-72	L	0%
1-18	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	60-57	L	0%
1-20	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	73-74	W	100%
1-25	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	62-47	W	100%
1-27	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	72-62	W	100%
2-1	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	54-56	W	100%
2-3	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	87-80	L	0%
2-10	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	66-81	L	0%
2-15	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	65-66	L	0%
2-17	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	72-70	W	100%
2-22	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	60-65	W	100%
2-24	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	81-88	W	100%
3-3	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	76-67	L	0%
3-7	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	N	66-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coastal Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Coastal Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Coastal Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Coastal Carolina	SB	26.38	26.38	37.75	37.75	-6.46	-6.46
Texas St.	SB	5.90	5.90	39.29	39.29	-1.26	-1.26
Appalachian St.	SB	4.43	4.43	37.93	37.93	-1.07	-1.07
UT Arlington	SB	4.29	4.29	61.29	61.29	0.97	0.97
Troy	SB	4.24	4.24	44.83	44.83	-0.44	-0.44
Little Rock	SB	4.21	4.21	21.43	21.43	-2.40	-2.40
South Alabama	SB	4.20	4.20	39.29	39.29	-0.90	-0.90
Arkansas St.	SB	4.18	4.18	32.14	32.14	-1.49	-1.49
Lamar	Slnd	3.45	3.45	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.76	2.76	80.00	80.00	1.66	1.66
Georgia St.	SB	2.76	2.76	67.74	67.74	0.98	0.98
Georgia Southern	SB	2.71	2.71	60.00	60.00	0.54	0.54
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.70	2.70	44.44	44.44	-0.30	-0.30
UTSA	CUSA	1.81	1.81	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Hampton	MEAC	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
South Carolina	SEC	1.75	1.75	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	1.75	1.75	33.33	33.33	-0.58	-0.58
Wofford	SC	1.75	1.75	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
College of Charleston	CAA	1.72	1.72	76.67	76.67	0.92	0.92
Iona	MAAC	1.72	1.72	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
Vermont	AE	1.72	1.72	78.12	78.12	0.97	0.97
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.24	0.24	10.71	10.71	-0.18	-0.18
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.24	0.24	30.77	30.77	-0.09	-0.09
UTEP	CUSA	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.22	0.22	17.24	17.24	-0.14	-0.14
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.20	0.20	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
New Orleans	Slnd	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.12	0.12	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
Tulsa	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01